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Should The Oilers Take A Shot At Subban?
By Rob Cooke
Hometown Hockey

Should The Oilers Take A Shot At Subban?
He is a true elite defender, even winning the Norris last season as the top defenceman in the league. What would it take to get him to sign with the Oilers? Well Mr. Katz better start sending truckloads of money over now and just keep sending them. Montreal is in a precarious position cap-wise, and there is more than just Subban to re-sign.
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Edmonton - June 1, 2014 - We all know what the needs of the Oilers are at this juncture; a top pairing defender capable of playing huge minutes, a number two center with size and defensive responsibility, and the ever present issue of having true NHL players in the bottom six. About the only real issue that seems to be sorted out for next season is the goaltending, with the tandem of Scrivens and Fasth locked up for the season.

Both are going to compete for the starting job and give the guys out front a much needed sense of confidence. Confidence that has been sorely lacking since Dwayne Roloson was six games and one injury away from leading the Oilers to the Promised Land.

Today I want to look at one of the three key areas that will need to be addressed for the blue and orange to be a realistic playoff threat. The single biggest issue that this team faces is the lack of a true number one defender. They are sorely missing someone like Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith, or Shea Weber. The Oilers need a guy that can play 25+ minutes on a nightly basis, in all three disciplines, and can handle the top players on all other teams.

Obviously a player of this caliber isn't going to just be gifted to the team, unless top prospect Aaron Ekblad from the Barrie Colts still happens to be available at the 3rd overall selection on the 27th of June, in Philadelphia. My guess is that he won't be there, as there are all sorts of rumblings that Calgary is extremely keen to move up for no other reason than to get to select this future all-star. So what option does this leave MacT and the rest of the brain trust to acquire the players needed to be a competitive team? They have three options currently available, trade, sign an unrestricted free agent, or sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet in hopes the other team won't match and give up the required draft picks as compensation.

Realistically the trade route is very unlikely to yield the quality of player that the Oilers are after, as teams generally don't trade players like these. Even if teams would be willing, it would likely require one of Hall, Eberle, or Nugent-Hopkins to facilitate the trade. With the knowledge that these three are very much the core of the team, we can for the most part guarantee that unless another GM comes with a deal that is impossible to refuse; a trade isn't a viable option. This leaves MacTavish the options to sign one of the better UFA options, or offer-sheeting another team’s player.

Personally I think with the very low amount of top defenders available this summer, it is going to be very hard to lure one of the top three or four guys to the frozen prairie, when many more tropical destinations await them. On top of that, is should one of them be willing to sign in Edmonton, should the Oilers make the offer? Three of the top guys that are current free agents are Dan Boyle, Kimmo Timonen, and Andrei Markov. All are entering or firmly entrenched in the twilight of their respective careers, so one has to wonder what is left in the tank. The one UFA that is sure to garner a lot of attention (not only from Edmonton) is Matt Niskanen of the Pittsburgh Penguins. He is only 28 years old and just entering the prime of his career. Barring a trade of James Neal or Kris Letang, the Pens will not be able to afford to bring him back. By all accounts, he is due a very healthy raise over last season which will effectively price him out of Pittsburgh.

Do I see any chance that Niskanen is going to sign here? Not likely. Unless the Oilers offer a gross overpayment, that is. I'm thinking $56 million over seven years, but in my opinion Niskanen hasn't earned a deal like that. As history tells us though, I'm fairly certain someone is going to offer him crazy amounts of money.

So realistically, the best option available to managment may be to offer sheet one of two players; Erik Gudbranson and P.K. Subban. Both are pending restricted free agents that would be worth having a conversation with on July 1st, but I'm not certain that either would be willing to even sign the offer sheet.

The one that I, along with a large number of Oilers fans, would love to see; is PK Subban. He is a true elite defender, even winning the Norris last season as the top defenceman in the league. What would it take to get him to sign with the Oilers? Well Mr. Katz better start sending truckloads of money over now and just keep sending them. Montreal is in a precarious position cap-wise, and there is more than just Subban to re-sign.

Along with PK, the Habs need to lock up Lars Eller, Dale Weise, Brian Gionta, and decide whether they can afford to keep Markov, Vanek, Weaver, and White. With five more set to see RFA status next summer, including Galchenyuk and Gallagher, the Canadiens need to be very concious of how much they dole out this summer. Should the Oilers offer basically the same deal that was given last summer to Shea Weber or Ryan Suter, it would likely be unmatchable by Montreal and we would have our #1 for years to come.

Of course, there is the fact that four first round picks go back in the other direction in the form of compensation, but with this player and the one we receive at this summer’s draft (likely Draisaitl or Bennett), the first round pick will get progressively lower every year.

What does everyone think about this idea? We get our top defender for the next seven years and Montreal receives four first round picks. I am all for it, folks but I want your feedback! Let me know what you people want to see happen and how you plan to acquire the talent we need on defence.

Thanks very much for reading and come back tomorrow and read how I will answer the other two key issues that are facing the team.

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