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 | It is well documented the Boston Bruins have cap challenges as they enter the 2014-15 season. There is no question that changes are on the horizon, so what is the handicap for your favourite black and gold player(s)? With no more scientific knowledge than anyone else, I give you my odds. | | Boston - September 11, 2014 -
It is well documented the Boston Bruins have cap challenges as they enter the 2014-15 season. There is no question that changes are on the horizon, so what is the handicap for your favourite black and gold player(s)? With no more scientific knowledge than anyone else, I give you my odds.
Forwards:
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1) Patrice Bergeron: Less likely to see him traded than Jeremy Jacobs sells the team. Trade odds -0-
2) Milan Lucic: Unlikely but not impossible. Fan favorite but sizeable cap hit at $6M. If he likes the jersey he better not stumble this year. Still odds are 2-1 he stays. Trade Odds 33%
3) David Krejci: $5.2M this year jumps to $7.2 for the next 7 years. Unlikely Bruins negotiated that contract to them trade him. 1 in 10, looks solid as the 1 in the 1-2 pair with Bergeron down the center of the ice for Bruins for foreseeable future. Trade Odds 10%
4) Brad Marchand: "LiL' Ball of Hate" is well loved when he is playing right on that edge, well criticized when falls off edge. As long as the he produces he is a decent value at $4.5M. Long post-season drought is a concern and has been streaky past few years. Another fan favorite, any trade would be widely unpopular. That said, his act could get real tired if production doesn't match agitation. Trade Odds 40%
5) Loui Eriksson: Make or break season for Loui in Bruins uniform. Really 1st half of year, every day he struggles will grease skids out of town. With expected move to top line he will be given every chance to succeed but at $4.2M patience will not be a virtue in this case. Only reason I see him sticking is the "Bad Seguin Trade" image hit front office takes. Still, sometimes harsh realities sometimes forces harsh decisions. Trade Odds 50-50 on Loui.
6) Chris Kelly: Odd man out for the bruins forwards not because of skill set...but because his salary is so far out of range for what he brings to team. At $3M he is grossly overpaid on a team that can ill afford it. Soon as he looks recovered from last season injury he is on his way out. Trade odds 80%, maybe higher if a prospect or two really lights it up in pre-season camp.
7 and 8) Greg Campbell and Daniel Paille: At $1.6M and $1.3M both offer great value and fit the quicker > faster mold teams want to move to. Would be very surprised to see either go, Trade odds 20%
9 )Carl Soderberg: Showed some terrific flashes once moved to his natural center position last spring. At $1M, safe as if in his mother’s arms. Trade odds 10%
10) Jordon Caron: Hour glass has emptied on this former 1st rounder. Unless he has a "lights out" training camp he will be gone before thanksgiving one way or the other but only a $600,000 cap savings but with Jordon it is not about the money. Jordon has never shown any consistent NHL level play from shift to shift, never mind game to game. Trade Odds 95%, does anyone see him having a break out camp....NO
11) Justin Florek: Had a decent few games as a late season call up, at $600,000 salary is not issue. Question is: Is he ready for prime time? One of a number of prospects that will get a hard look at camp. Trade odds 20%, would only be part of a bundle if he goes anywhere...no other reason to trade him.
12) Reilly Smith: Excellent 1st half last year, trailed off and had a miserable slum 2nd half but still played well and contributed both defensively and on second PP unit. Still unsigned RFA, he has no leverage and looks to come in >$2M. Unless he was a flash in the pan, he is a keeper. 25% trade odds, bad 1st half and a strong offer could pry him loose but I doubt either will happen.
Defenseman:
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1 and 2) Zdeno Chara and Denis Seidenberg: $6.9M and $4M. Blue line anchors, Chara considered irreplaceable and Seidenberg just signed new contract. Many believe Bruins were finalist in the east last year with a healthy Seidenberg and it’s hard to dispute. Trade Odds -0-
3) Dougie Hamilton: Had a solid to at times excellent year last year. His strong play will have made JB expendable and a real cap friendly $894167 cap hit. Trade Odds -0-
4) Johnny Boychuck: The only question is how long he will last with the team. I would do not see him in Bruins uniform in 2015. $3.3 million cap it and UFA next season and will easily command $5M the Bruins cannot afford. Hamilton's season last year and a deep roster of defenseman make Johnny Rocket expendable. Great locker room guy and prototypical Bruin on the ice, he will be missed but a white collar luxury for a blue collar team. Trade Odds 90%
5) Adam McQuaid: Oft injured McQuaid is a terror on ice with his play but can't stay healthy and ON ice and with Kevan Millers solid season last year it is a matching skill set with the more expensive player the greater injury history. $1.5M is not a lot but it is when Miller is 1/2 the cost and on the ice. Trade Odds 75%
6) Kevan Miller: $800,000 for 5th/6th defenseman that brings grit, toughness and a strong defensive end play is a bargain. Trade Odds 15% (another only as a package to move/get other pieces and I would still be surprised).
7) Tory Krug: RFA will be like Reilly Smith, >$2M, I would expect closer to $1.5M. He’s Still a bit of a liability defensively but more than makes up for it with offense. Bruins have not had a Power Play blue liner like him since Ray Bourque (no, he is not Rays equal overall). Trade Odds 10%
8) Matt Bartkowski: Solid season marred by a tough end of season and playoff stretch. With a 22 +/- last year hard to argue he did not have his moment but burnt out at end of season when the light shines brightest and mistakes magnified. He has been traded more than Bobby Orrs rookie cards and they never pan out. It is a decent value at $1.2M IF...he can repeat his early season play.
He will be on very short leash if he starts season continuing to struggle, in particular since he is slotted to start in the press box as the 7th or 8th defenseman. Personally I like him, but sooner or later a trade with him has to stick just due to law of averages. Its either McQuaid or Bartkowski, possibly both. Trade Odds 65%. If one of the baby B's has a great camp, the number rises to 80% since any Providence Bruins defenseman promoted is half the cap hit.
So as they enter the 2015 playoffs, look for the Bruins to be missing Boychuck, McQuaid, Kelly and the gain the $7.5M savings. Whoever replaces Kelly and the released Thorton will be a >$1M rookies (Spooner, Khokhlachev, Florek) leaving the Bruins some much needed flexibility both at trade deadline and for next year. Despite expected significant cap increase, the Bruins can’t be status quo going into next year as they face a number of UFA signings and a $2M bump in Krecji's new 7 year deal.
Look for the Bruins to be active this year as they trim salary and give greater responsibility to up and coming young players from down on the farm and current roster. It is a good blend of experience and youth that looks to keep them in the cup hunt past April and into May if, like everyone else, they can stay healthy.
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